Friday, February 16, 2007

Still Waiting - Adoption News - Is it Greek to you?

Rumor Queen (RQ) is a blog all families adopting from China frequent (sometimes hourly). She's out of town so we are relying on others to pass on any news. You can get to her blog by clicking on the link on our blog (right column).

Last month's "referrals" were sent out through October 12, 2005. We are logged in with China on January 27, 2006. We still have about 107 days more to go - when it will be our time to see Alyzabeth for the first time. When we began this process officially in May of 2005, we were told (data from China's International Adoption past history) that in 6 to 8 months we would find out about our new daughter. So July to September of 2006 we should have had our referral. You can see why we shy away from predictions anymore.

What the heck - I will go out on a limb since I feel China will speed up over the next year (probably too late for us) and say that we should get Lizzy's picture in September 2007 with travel to China in November. And we thought we would have her home by Christmas 2006......

Here's the latest rumor if you understand Adoption speak.......

Quote from: Brownideb on Yesterday at 08:39:58 PMI spoke with our large China Only Agency last week and they have said we "should" be in the next batch and that the next batch "should" include 10/27/05 and doubted it would be right before CNY but anytime after the 24th (which is a Sat.).
They also had me download a few things today I can only say that the large agency stating CCAA is working on the next set of matches is one that RQ considers very reliable. They are my agency and I have never seen them release any information that is not true. They are very conservative and don't tell us anything ahead of time. Usually, when they say the CCAA is working on the next set of matches, the matches arrive about a week later. HOWEVER, they do explicitly state they don't expect the matches to be mailed before CNY.

Okay, let's do a summary of the above:
Issue 1: before or after CNY: So far all of these agencies, including the one RQ consider "very reliable" are stating no referrals until after CNY.
Issue 2: after CNY, when will referrals arrive: At least one large, China-only agency (no idea of reliability) says "anytime after the 24th". Another agency says they are matching now, which in the past has meant referrals following shortly BUT this agency explicitly says AFTER CNY: which may point to late Feb/early March referral. Most other agencies are saying referrals in mid-March. So: referral range reported is Feb 25 - March 15.
Issue 3: What LIDs will be included in next batch: One poster reports that their large, China-only agency says Oct 27 "should" be included. Keep in mind that some agencies lean toward positive phrasing. Still, "should" is stronger than "might". If the agency said "should" for the 27th, that does bode well for those with Oct 23 and 24. And it's enough of a possibility that the agency is having the poster download information to be ready. Keep in mind that any responsible agency would need to be prepping its late October LIDs for the possibility of being included, even if the chance was small.
I don't think we should assume too much from all this: this may just be an agency being prepared for all circumstances. As of today, though, 27 Oct is still a possibility for the next batch. That's awesome!


C.J. said...

I certainly hope so! But, then again, as hard as it can be to swallow there is meaning to this long wait. (I keep telling myself this.)

rubyiscoming said...

Phew - all this looking in crystal balls is tough, right? :) I wish we did have a clearer indication that China may speed up a bit again, but haven't seen anything that would indicate it. Well, you are thinking it will be September for you - we are thinking October for us! A few more (long) months.

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